Archive for the 'Stock Watch' Category

Stock Watch — 04/27/2007

The Dow broke the 13,000 mark today. Yay! Anyway. Moving right along. For the first time in my life, I’m going to sound a little bearish. But I’m really optistic about the market and the potential to make money in 2007. Certainly 13,000 is a nice new tier, but it’s no reason to get excited. Some analysts are predicting 14,000 to 15,000 before the year end. Seriously? What about focusing on the dollar and maybe on why gasoline is so high this early in the year. It’s not even summer yet. Give us a chance, oil guys. I haven’t cashed in my stocks yet.

The Derrich.com Portfolio is chuggin’ right along. As of the close on Thursday, April 26th, the portfolio is up 8.06% (before any sales) versus 10.47% on Friday, April 13th. This is in large part due to Sify Ltd (NASDAQ: SIFY) reporting a Q4 loss (period ending March 31, 2007) on Monday. Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) got hammered after its earnings announcement and is down to a 6.03% gain versus a 16.90% gain as of April 13th. Jones Soda (NASDAQ: JSDA) shareholders have likely taken profits on this stock as it has been up over 120% this year. Since it was added to the Derrich.com portfolio, it has been up as high as 107.50%; it is currently up 77.35%. And based on my “don’t be greedy” rule, we’re letting this one go.

Sify, Ltd.
Shares fell nearly 8% on Monday following the company’s earnings announcement. For the full fiscal year, Sify Ltd earned $2.3 million, or 5 cents per share, versus a loss of $3.5 million, or 10 cents per share, in 2005; and revenues rose to $128 million from $108.7 million, or 17.9%. According to a company press release, Mr. Pijush K Das, Chief Financial Officer, Sify Limited, said,

We have taken some bold financial decisions, particularly with regard to doubtful debts, in the interest of our financial health going forwards. We are also reworking our billing and collection systems to ensure that these are minimized in future.

One thing remains. Sify is still the premiere broadband provider and Internet portal in India. Don’t write this one off yet. They’re making money now. And priced at $8.34/share (as of April 26), it makes for a great buy.

Big News Equal Big Gains. Don’t Let Euphoria Buy Your Stocks
Is it a good idea to go grocery shopping on an empty stomach? Probably not. I don’t know about you, but I end up buying more than I need…or would have if everything looked so delicious. With all of these excellent earnings announcements, stock prices are skyrocketing to new highs. Sure. Let the news bring your focus to these companies, but don’t buy without doing your due diligence. Thursday brought a couple of well-known examples of what I’m referring to.

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) revenues were up 65% on robust sales of Windows Vista. Cool. But what’s next for Microsoft? What does the company have left to follow up with another knock out quarter? The XBox remains unprofitable. The Zune has been a disaster so far, but promises to be a great future eBay collectors item like Beta Max.

Ford Motor Company also (NYSE: F) on “stronger than expected” results as stated by Ford President and Chief Executive Officer, Alan Mulally.

Our first quarter results came in somewhat stronger than expected, but there are many uncertainties going forward. We remain focused on improving our quality, productivity and business performance.”

First-quarter highlights included strong performance of new U.S. products including Ford Edge, Lincoln MKX, Ford F-Series Super Duty, Ford Escape and Mercury Mariner. European sales were up $154 million, Premier Auto Group revenues were up $250 million and the company cut operating costs by $500 million. Ford is cutting back on fleet sales, which will translate into a loss in market share. And no new products are planned sooner than 2008. So what’s next? Simple. Focus on productivity and cost reduction in the near term. Mulally also says that 70% of its product will be refreshed by 2008, and 100% will be refreshed by 2010. This will be a good one to watch…perhaps a good one to add to the Derrich.com portfolio. I still need another quarter or two of progress. Stay tuned.

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Stock Watch - 04/16/2007

I’m happy to annouce the Derrich.com Stock Portfolio is up again this week (as of the close of trading on Friday, April 13th). The portfolio welcomed 2 stocks on April 6th: COH (NYSE) and FMS (NYSE), up 1.15% and 1.22% respectively since April 5th. Not counting the addition of these two stocks, the portfolio is up 15.31%.

So due to the “newness” of our two picks, the overall gain is currently 10.47%…and hopefully climbing.

Coach Downgraded, Still A Top Performer
Despite what some consider discouraging news, the downgrading of Coach (via Forbes.com) by Standard & Poor’s Equity Research analyst, Marie Driscoll, is still underscored by good news. Driscoll downgraded the stock to “hold” from “buy”, arguing that shares are approaching her 12-month target price of $53. The article goes on to say that

[Driscoll] still sees Coach as the leading U.S.-leading positioned accessories brand executing on multiple growth levers with acumen…and thinks the shares are fairly valued at current levels, noting that the stock is now at a 40%-plus premium to apparel retail peers and a 70% premium to the S&P 500, based on calendar 2007 estimates.

Sounds good to me. If you haven’t gotten into Coach at this point, wait for a stock sale. I wouldn’t let these comments discourage you from a future purchase.

Google Keeps DoubleClick Out Of Microsoft’s Hands & Jumps Further Ahead Of Yahoo!
What a move by Google. Just when I thought Yahoo! might be making up some ground, Google shocks the world yet again. After the questionable $1.65 billion purchase of YouTube last year, Google outbid Microsoft for DoubleClick by bidding $3.1 billion for the online advertising company. No doubt that the combination will significantly expand opportunities for advertisers, agencies, and publishers and improve users’ online experience as stated in Friday’s DoubleClick Press Release. FYI, AOL and MySpace are two of DoubleClick’s major customers.

In an article released late yesterday at MarketWatch.com, Microsoft basically suggested that the purchase of DoubleClick should raise antitrust and privacy concerns. The Wall Street Journal quoted Brad Smith, Microsoft’s general counsel, as saying

Google’s purchase of DoubleClick combines the two largest providers of online advertising delivery and is going to reduce substantially the market competition on which Web sites rely on to provide advertising…taken together, Google and DoubleClick would handle more than 80% of the advertisements served up to third-party Web sites when a user pulls up a page, the Journal reported.

Other companies also expressed their concerns in the purchase including AT&T, Inc., Time Warner, Inc.

According to Larry Dignan from ZDNet.com, “Google just validated Yahoo’s display business, which just a year ago was the ugly stepsister of keyword ads”. Hopefully the market won’t lose faith in Yahoo! and its online ad campaign…not before the end of the year, when Google hopes to finalize the purchase of DoubleClick.

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Stock Watch — 04/06/2007

Early this morning, the Associated Press [via Yahoo! Finance] reported that consumers confidence fell for the 2nd month in a row. Last month, we witnessed a cautious market that hesitated on the heels of the whole sub-prime worry.

It marked the second straight month that consumer confidence has declined. That drop comes as the national economy is stuck in a sluggish spell, mostly reflecting the troubled housing market. At the same time, prices for gasoline and other goods are rising, pinching peoples’ wallets.

As the article alludes to, the real worry comes as a result of uncertainty by our leadership. The weak job-approval rating of President Bush and the conflicting opinions of Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, and former Fed Chief, Alan Greenspan, are more reason to be concerned.

So What?
No worries. This was an excellent week for the stock market. The Dow went 6 straight sessions with gains, which is the longest since November 2006. In fact, just about every index was up since last Friday.

Derrich.com Stock Portfolio
The Derrich.com stock portfolio is up since we last looked at the results from March 26th when it was up 11.29%. As of the market close on 04/05/2007, the portfolio was up 13.44%.

The Ringers
Jones Soda (NASDAQ: JSDA) continues to push ahead. It rose from $22.00 on 03/26 to $25.54 yesterday. It also hit a new 52-week high on Wednesday of $26.17. The company announced on Monday that it would sell a new product with pure cane sugar versus high fructose corn syrup in conjunction with its goal to convert all of its products. The Company’s 2-year contract with Target expired at the end of 2006, and it now has a 5-year contract with National Beverage to manufacture and distribute the company’s canned soda to national retailers. With added exposure and reach, this stock is just getting ready to go.

Diageo (NYSE: DEO) rose 16.1% since 03/26. If everyone keeps worrying about the market like this, I predict a little extra drinking happening, which is great for Diageo. In fact, if you guys make money, I’m sure the celebration will call for…well, for drinks.

New Stocks On The Block
The Derrich.com Stock Portfolio welcomes 2 new stocks to the party: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGAA (NYSE: FMS) and Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH). Fresenius is a German kidney dialysis company that provides dialysis treatment at its own dialysis clinics (also in the United States), as well as produces and supplies a range of machines and disposables. This company has quickly become a major player in this niche, and I also like it since it pays a dividend [yield = 1.00%]. As far as Coach…well, you could pick just about any high-end clothing and accessories retailer. I almost chose Guess (NYSE: GES), which is up 125.8% in the last 12-month period…and it pays a dividend [yield = 0.10%]…but I like Coach. Every woman I know talks about nothing but Coach purses and wallets. And that’s it. And they’re not just talking about them. They’re buying them. If Jessica Alba likes them, then why shouldn’t you…well, the stock anyway.

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I’ve Got Your Stock Picks Right Here!

Back in December, I decided to feature some stocks that I own, or monitor regularly. My three choices were included in a list by SmartMoney Magazine of where to invest in 2007. A few months later, I decided to posit 6 stock picks under $10 of my own. Since then, I’ve been asked by some of you to continue to come up with a list…and for a little advice based on your own picks.

Coincidentally, Blain Reinkensmeyer emailed me this weekend asking me to choose two stocks for his weekly stock picking contest. Blain’s blog, Stock Investing 101, is a contestant in the 2007 Bloggers Tournament and he’s the Top Commenter on Derrich.com. The purpose of the contest this week is to “try to beat out eMom though there really is no true purpose”. I’m game. eMom is fellow MyBlogLog-er, Wendy Piersall. She claims she’s “not much into the stock market“. But we’ll see about that. Ok. So I’m a little intimidated. What can I say?

Derrich.com Stock Portfolio
On the main page, I’ve included a new section in the sidebar called “Stock Watch”. Included in that list will be every stock I’ve mentioned on Derrich.com. I’ve decided I’d also begin keeping track of the portfolio as if I were purchasing each of the stocks. For Blain’s contest, I chose Braskem S.A. (NYSE: BAK) and Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO). I’ll go into more detail as to why in another post. I have not yet entered them into my chart, which I’ve included below. It reflects the stock price as of the market close on Monday, March 26.

View today’s trading activity on the Yahoo! Finance widget located on the main page.

Whether or not I actually own them, I will simulate buying and selling of the stocks in the Derrich.com portfolio as if I did own them in order to keep track of returns. Each stock will be bought and sold in 100-share increments. I will also limit the portfolio to 25 stocks at a time. Don’t forget, I’m not a stock broker, nor am I a financial advisor. Just a stock market aficionado. Follow at your own risk. Muahahahaha!!! *cough*cough*

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BlogRoll

• Milk Was A Bad Choice
• CrackBerry.com
• Stock Trading 101
• For The Love Of Sports
• Project Spurs
• Busted Coverage
• WallStreetFighter

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