The chart below is the Derrich.com portfolio as I left it since the last Stock Watch on May 21, 2007. As you can tell alot has happened since then.

With so many changes in the prices of the stocks above, we’ll get rid of a few and add others in their place. Out with MOT, SIX, SIFY, and FMS. In come the following.

*Last Trade as of market close on 08/01/2007. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Moral of this story? Don’t leave your portfolio unattended. This is why many people opt to use a stock broker or financial advisor. If you can’t commit to the time necessary to do our due diligence, get some help from an expert. For me personally, opening Retox Bar in addition to my “day job” and my blogging has caused me to neglect the Stock Watch…to do the necessary research to make a worthwhile analysis.

Sun On The Horizon
Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ: SUNW) was one of the dogs of the Technology sector since the stock peaked back in September 1, 2000 when it closed at $128.63. Now at just over $5 per share, it is being hailed by some as a steal. Sun has reported 3 straight quarters of profit and a stronger Balance Sheet despite an increase in long-term debt. And Sun plans to use $3 billion of its nearly $6 billion in cash to repurchase stock over the next few years. Perhaps we’ll find out more on Sept 5th in New York when the company holds its financial analyst meeting. As Jim Cramer so lucidly explains in the following video, Sun has accomplished its new found “green” by being a better manager of its operating costs…because it sure isn’t a significant increase in revenues. And don’t just pay attention to Erin Burnett. Listen to what Sun Microsystems CEO, Jonathan Schwartz, has to say about why his company is a good candidate for your portfolio. Think…international exposure.

Gotta love the Jim Cramer strongarm interrogation to get the answers when you need em. I’ve always wondered why he doesn’t “push # on your keypad to ask a question” during the call.

Despite uncertainties with regard to what Sun will do with its cash, and whether or not the company will grow its revenues more considerably, I’m putting all my chips on Sun. If you want to do your own research, check out this list of tech stock sectors for recent performance. You can drill down into each specific sector for a list of stocks. As always, I’m open to your picks as well, and will consider including those in future analyses.

Related posts:

1. Stock Watch — 04/06/2007
2. Stock Watch – 04/16/2007
3. Stock Watch — 05/07/2007

After months of criticism regarding the ongoing battle with Google for online ad supremacy, Yahoo! Inc. CEO Terry Semel steps down taking a back seat to Yahoo! (Yet Another Hierarchical Officious Oracle) co-founder Jerry Yang. As John Shinal of MarketWatch explains in the following video, technology will be the focus with Jerry Yang at the helm. Well…it might be.

The company is in good hands…I felt like it was time for me to move more into a coach’s role than a player’s role.

Hey, Jerry. Isn’t that what a CEO is supposed to do? Coach? As you heard in the video, during Semel’s tenure, traffic increased and the stock price rose…but Google has slowly taken control of the online advertising market. Check out this timeline below. What it won’t show is Semel’s addition to Jim Cramer’s Wall of Shame.

Table supplied by MSNBC.msn.com. Information courtesy of Associated Press.

Ok…So Do I Buy Or Sell Yahoo!?
According to the May 2007 comScore Media Metrix, Yahoo! is still the most visited site in the U.S. And according to the same report, Yahoo! leaped into the #2 spot of sites ranked by Ad Focus…5 spots higher than Google…which evaluates the actual and potential reach of ad sales networks and their channels or categories. So, if this is true, why has the company struggled to jumpstart Panama? As I’ve mentioned before, Panama hasn’t had enough time to realize its true potential. I still believe that. Others have a less flattering opinion…and these estimations aren’t unlikely either. No doubt, Yahoo! management has their work cut out for them. But at least they’re not over compensating anymore. A little time for reflection and a chance to woo a worthy mate. So, my buy/sell opinion? Sell it now. Watch it fall and bounce a few times because it will. Don’t mess with the uncertainty…don’t even short it. If you have no fear, then by all means keep it. While it was already a pretty speculative play, it is now at the extreme end.

Read All About It!!!

• I Was Never Very Impressed By Terry — The Secret Diary of Steve Jobs
• Yahoo’s Big Mistake — BuzzMachine.com
• Open Letter To Jerry Yang — Traffick.com
• Yahoo! CEO Semel resigning – Liveblogging the webcast — Melly Alazraki, BloggingStocks.com

Related posts:

1. Yahoo! Stock Price Falls on Flattering Expectations
2. Yahoo! Sports Thinks Robert Horry Is Too Old
3. Can Yahoo! Really Give Google A Run For Its Money?

As I sit back and watch Qwest Communications International Inc. (NYSE: Q) and Star Gas Partners (NYSE: SGU) surpass my “greed meter” at 21.06% and 22.76% returns, respectively, I can’t help but notice the few stocks that remain flat. With the first day of summer approaching (June 21st), we may take advantage of some last minute spring cleaning. For now, each of these stocks looks good enough to hold on to through the 2nd quarter. The chart below shows gains as of today’s close versus those of the last Stock Watch report.

*Price as of market close on 05/31/2007. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

A Qwest For Success
Nevermind that Qwest Communications is up 21.06%, it still has room to go higher. Today it announced that it was one of five telecoms to win a piece of a government contract worth up to $20 billion just weeks after it was one of only 3 telecoms awarded the largest such contract for $48 billion. If the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) has faith in this company to deliver its services effectively, then so should you. The company continues to improve the strength of its balance sheet, and it is now making money on the bottom line…for the fifth straight quarter to be exact. Some analysts also believe Qwest is a very strong candidate to be acquired.

Fresenius Remains Strong and Healthy
Fresenius Medical Care (NYSE: FMS) reported its 1st quarter 2007 financial results earlier this month. Keep in mind that the operations of Renal Care Group are included in the Company’s consolidated statements of income and cash flows from April 1, 2006. However, Net Income increased by $160 million, or 38%, and North American revenue increased by 37% to $1,637 million, $1,483 million of which came from Dialysis Services. The company had planned a May 15th announcement of a 1:3 stock split…and it was approved. In addition, Fresenius shareholders unanimously approved a 15% increase in dividends, the 14th consecutive increase. At this point, you may consider waiting until the split occurs to get into this one. The split should take place sometime during the 3rd quarter.

Related posts:

1. Stock Watch — 04/27/2007
2. Stock Watch — 04/06/2007
3. Stock Watch — 05/21/2007

The list of stocks to watch that I recommended last week are all up nicely. As you can tell from the chart below, a couple of other stocks have done well since I first mentioned them including Qwest Communications International (NYSE: Q) and Star Gas Partners (NYSE: SGU). Star Gas Partners is encroaching on my “greed meter” with a 20.20% return since March 7. Also mentioned March 7, Sify Ltd. (NASDAQ: SIFY) has remained somewhat flat since, but is still one of those stocks I like alot. So, let’s keep it around. It’s only been a couple of months anyhow.

*Price as of market close on 05/21/2007. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Educate Yourself
I can’t stress enough the importance of doing due diligence when taking investing advice. Even if it’s from a Certified Financial Planner (CFP), a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), or some other licensed professional (with remarkable investing acumen like me ), doing your own research will help you understand how the company works. Who does the company sell to and why? How do they sell? How do they produce and what materials/resources do they use? You’ll gain a new understanding of its processes. Beyond that, you should get familiar with numbers like margins, returns on assets, and how to evaluate a company’s capital structure.

On the education note, I read a post over at DividendMoney.com last week. Tyler McKinna used an interesting approach to help ensure you make money in stocks. In addition to due diligence, #5 on the list discusses using stop loss orders. Check it out if you have a sec.

Related posts:

1. Stock Watch — 04/27/2007
2. Stock Watch — 08/01/2007
3. Stock Watch — 05/07/2007

According to Investopedia.com, a Stop-Loss Order is an order placed with a broker to sell a security when it reaches a certain price…designed to limit an investor’s loss on a security position. A stop-loss order is also referred to as a “stop-market order”. This is because when the stock hits the price you’ve previously set, your stop-loss actually becomes a market order. The stock is sold at the best market price available.

I don’t like to lose more than 10% on any stock purchase I make. To use an example, the Derrich.com welcomed Coach (NYSE: COH) at $51.40/share. As of yesterday’s close (05/15), the stock fell 2.66% to $46.10/share. That’s a loss of 10.31% since we added it to the portfolio. A stop-loss order would have sold COH at or around $46.26/share ($51.40 – $5.14 = $46.26).

Put Me In, Coach!
Despite being down yesterday, Coach is back up about 1.5% today. In my non-financial advisor, stock market aficionado opinion, now is the time to get into the stock if you haven’t already. In a real-life situation, I would not have placed a stop-loss on Coach simply because I like the long-term outlook for the stock. I certainly have my limits, but I’m pretty confident that women all over the country are still eyeing that new Coach bag in the latest catalog.

UPDATE: Coach closed the day (05/16) up $1.36, or 2.95% recovering its previous day’s loss.

Learn and understand more about the stock market at Stock Trading 101.

Related posts:

1. I’ve Got Your Stock Picks Right Here!
2. Stock Watch — 04/06/2007
3. Stock Watch — 04/27/2007

Motorola
Lately Motorola (NYSE: MOT) has been the center of attention on most analysts’ minds…or so it seems. Every other article discusses Carl Icahn’s continuing struggle to obtain a seat at the table (i.e. Motorola’s board); or how improvements in technological infrastructure mean the purchase of Motorola network equipment and software. Last week, Motorola CEO Ed Zander announced plans to unveil its iPhone competitor at the Software 2000 conference in Santa Clara, California. I suppose we’ll have to wait for the unveiling, but don’t wait to hop on board the Motorola train. A bit speculative especially given the current farrago of expectations, forecasts, and obstacles…but don’t forget the dividend yield of 1.10% either.

For the next two, I didn’t have to look too far. Both are based right here in San Antonio and are solid companies with solid management…and solid business models.

Argonaut
Argonaut Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: AGII) underwrite specialty commercial insurance in the property and casualty insurance markets through three segments: Excess and Surplus Lines, Select Markets, and Public Entity. Basically, the company provides insurance to entities that have an otherwise difficult time obtaining policies. It has proven to be a solid niche.

Last Monday (May 7), Argonaut reported that it grew first-quarter earnings by 22% on record first-quarter revenue.

Argonaut’s combined ratio, or rate of losses on policies, for the first quarter of 2007 was 94.2 percent, compared to 95.2 percent in the prior year, meaning Argonaut is paying a lower percentage of its premiums out in claims.

Argonaut also expanded and diversified its reinsurance segment with the announcement that it would merge with Bermuda-based property reinsurer, PXRE Group Ltd. to form the Argo Group. Reinsurance is the insurance companies that insurance companies use to spread out their own risks as a hedge against catastrophic loss. What does that potentially mean for Argonaut? Think Berkshire Hathaway…or Warren Buffet.

Kinetic Concepts
Do great minds think alike or what? I was watching Mad Money on Friday, and Jim Cramer mentions Kinetic Concepts as a speculative buy.

KCI (NYSE: KCI) engages in the design, manufacture, marketing, and service of wound care and therapeutic products. According to a MM recap on TheStreet.com, [Cramer] considers the stock speculative because “it’s not a pastiche. It doesn’t have a variety of product but instead is only levered to the wound-care business.” On Friday, KCI ended the day down on news that a new competitor has strengthened itself in the wound care game. The fear is that Smith & Nephew PLC, said competitor, would have no problems improving its market share…even doubling according to Cowen & Co. analyst Dhulsini de Zoysa. Sorry, Dhulsini. But if it’s good enough for Cramer, it’s good enough for Derrich.com.

Good luck, and make some money! And don’t forget to sharpen your stock trading knowledge at Stock Trading 101.

Related posts:

1. Get Your Stocks! Stocks For Sale!
2. Stock Watch — 04/06/2007
3. Stock Watch — 08/01/2007

MSNYahoo!
In a move that would give them a 25% share in the online ad market, the Yahoo!/Microsoft merger was put to rest again. The 20+% spike in its price would have been reason enough for me to sell my shares of Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO). We’ll hold on to it in the Derrich.com Portfolio for now. Look for a decrease in today’s price. If I’m right, see it as another buy opportunity, especially below $30/share, for the stock despite what Chad Brand of the Peridot Capitalist believes the two have little to lose by combining forces.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Media Data For Sale
The announcement News Corp (i.e. Rupurt Murdoch) to bid $5 billion for Dow Jones earlier this week sparked a huge jump in Dow Jones stock while shares of News Corp fell. Reuters is being courted by Thomson Corporation suggesting that it wants to go head to head with Bloomberg in the lucrative market of delivering real-time financial data and news to customers like investment banks.

Derrich.com Portfolio
I’ve been touting several new stocks for the Derrich.com Portfolio. I’ll GEt back to you with my choice(s) later this week. And don’t forget what I said last week about buying stocks on euphoria. Yes, it could make you money…but you can also lose big, especially if you don’t track the market daily or more frequently. With all of the merger and acquisition talk, it is easy to get caught up in the speculative game. Remain focused, my friends.

Related posts:

1. Stock Watch – 04/16/2007
2. Stock Watch — 05/21/2007
3. Stock Watch — 08/01/2007

The Derrich.com Portfolio is chuggin’ right along. As of the close on Thursday, April 26th, the portfolio is up 8.06% (before any sales) versus 10.47% on Friday, April 13th. This is in large part due to Sify Ltd (NASDAQ: SIFY) reporting a Q4 loss (period ending March 31, 2007) on Monday. Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) got hammered after its earnings announcement and is down to a 6.03% gain versus a 16.90% gain as of April 13th. Jones Soda (NASDAQ: JSDA) shareholders have likely taken profits on this stock as it has been up over 120% this year. Since it was added to the Derrich.com portfolio, it has been up as high as 107.50%; it is currently up 77.35%. And based on my “don’t be greedy” rule, we’re letting this one go.

Sify, Ltd.
Shares fell nearly 8% on Monday following the company’s earnings announcement. For the full fiscal year, Sify Ltd earned $2.3 million, or 5 cents per share, versus a loss of $3.5 million, or 10 cents per share, in 2005; and revenues rose to $128 million from $108.7 million, or 17.9%. According to a company press release, Mr. Pijush K Das, Chief Financial Officer, Sify Limited, said,

We have taken some bold financial decisions, particularly with regard to doubtful debts, in the interest of our financial health going forwards. We are also reworking our billing and collection systems to ensure that these are minimized in future.

One thing remains. Sify is still the premiere broadband provider and Internet portal in India. Don’t write this one off yet. They’re making money now. And priced at $8.34/share (as of April 26), it makes for a great buy.

Big News Equal Big Gains. Don’t Let Euphoria Buy Your Stocks
Is it a good idea to go grocery shopping on an empty stomach? Probably not. I don’t know about you, but I end up buying more than I need…or would have if everything looked so delicious. With all of these excellent earnings announcements, stock prices are skyrocketing to new highs. Sure. Let the news bring your focus to these companies, but don’t buy without doing your due diligence. Thursday brought a couple of well-known examples of what I’m referring to.

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) revenues were up 65% on robust sales of Windows Vista. Cool. But what’s next for Microsoft? What does the company have left to follow up with another knock out quarter? The XBox remains unprofitable. The Zune has been a disaster so far, but promises to be a great future eBay collectors item like Beta Max.

Ford Motor Company also (NYSE: F) on “stronger than expected” results as stated by Ford President and Chief Executive Officer, Alan Mulally.

Our first quarter results came in somewhat stronger than expected, but there are many uncertainties going forward. We remain focused on improving our quality, productivity and business performance.”

First-quarter highlights included strong performance of new U.S. products including Ford Edge, Lincoln MKX, Ford F-Series Super Duty, Ford Escape and Mercury Mariner. European sales were up $154 million, Premier Auto Group revenues were up $250 million and the company cut operating costs by $500 million. Ford is cutting back on fleet sales, which will translate into a loss in market share. And no new products are planned sooner than 2008. So what’s next? Simple. Focus on productivity and cost reduction in the near term. Mulally also says that 70% of its product will be refreshed by 2008, and 100% will be refreshed by 2010. This will be a good one to watch…perhaps a good one to add to the Derrich.com portfolio. I still need another quarter or two of progress. Stay tuned.

Related posts:

1. Stock Watch — 05/21/2007
2. Stock Watch — 05/31/2007
3. Stock Watch — 05/07/2007

So due to the “newness” of our two picks, the overall gain is currently 10.47%…and hopefully climbing.

Coach Downgraded, Still A Top Performer
Despite what some consider discouraging news, the downgrading of Coach (via Forbes.com) by Standard & Poor’s Equity Research analyst, Marie Driscoll, is still underscored by good news. Driscoll downgraded the stock to “hold” from “buy”, arguing that shares are approaching her 12-month target price of $53. The article goes on to say that

[Driscoll] still sees Coach as the leading U.S.-leading positioned accessories brand executing on multiple growth levers with acumen…and thinks the shares are fairly valued at current levels, noting that the stock is now at a 40%-plus premium to apparel retail peers and a 70% premium to the S&P 500, based on calendar 2007 estimates.

Sounds good to me. If you haven’t gotten into Coach at this point, wait for a stock sale. I wouldn’t let these comments discourage you from a future purchase.

Google Keeps DoubleClick Out Of Microsoft’s Hands & Jumps Further Ahead Of Yahoo!
What a move by Google. Just when I thought Yahoo! might be making up some ground, Google shocks the world yet again. After the questionable $1.65 billion purchase of YouTube last year, Google outbid Microsoft for DoubleClick by bidding $3.1 billion for the online advertising company. No doubt that the combination will significantly expand opportunities for advertisers, agencies, and publishers and improve users’ online experience as stated in Friday’s DoubleClick Press Release. FYI, AOL and MySpace are two of DoubleClick’s major customers.

In an article released late yesterday at MarketWatch.com, Microsoft basically suggested that the purchase of DoubleClick should raise antitrust and privacy concerns. The Wall Street Journal quoted Brad Smith, Microsoft’s general counsel, as saying

Google’s purchase of DoubleClick combines the two largest providers of online advertising delivery and is going to reduce substantially the market competition on which Web sites rely on to provide advertising…taken together, Google and DoubleClick would handle more than 80% of the advertisements served up to third-party Web sites when a user pulls up a page, the Journal reported.

Other companies also expressed their concerns in the purchase including AT&T, Inc., Time Warner, Inc.

According to Larry Dignan from ZDNet.com, “Google just validated Yahoo’s display business, which just a year ago was the ugly stepsister of keyword ads”. Hopefully the market won’t lose faith in Yahoo! and its online ad campaign…not before the end of the year, when Google hopes to finalize the purchase of DoubleClick.

Related posts:

1. Stock Watch — 04/06/2007
2. Stock Watch — 04/27/2007
3. Stock Watch — 05/07/2007

It marked the second straight month that consumer confidence has declined. That drop comes as the national economy is stuck in a sluggish spell, mostly reflecting the troubled housing market. At the same time, prices for gasoline and other goods are rising, pinching peoples’ wallets.

As the article alludes to, the real worry comes as a result of uncertainty by our leadership. The weak job-approval rating of President Bush and the conflicting opinions of Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, and former Fed Chief, Alan Greenspan, are more reason to be concerned.

So What?
No worries. This was an excellent week for the stock market. The Dow went 6 straight sessions with gains, which is the longest since November 2006. In fact, just about every index was up since last Friday.

Derrich.com Stock Portfolio
The Derrich.com stock portfolio is up since we last looked at the results from March 26th when it was up 11.29%. As of the market close on 04/05/2007, the portfolio was up 13.44%.

The Ringers
Jones Soda (NASDAQ: JSDA) continues to push ahead. It rose from $22.00 on 03/26 to $25.54 yesterday. It also hit a new 52-week high on Wednesday of $26.17. The company announced on Monday that it would sell a new product with pure cane sugar versus high fructose corn syrup in conjunction with its goal to convert all of its products. The Company’s 2-year contract with Target expired at the end of 2006, and it now has a 5-year contract with National Beverage to manufacture and distribute the company’s canned soda to national retailers. With added exposure and reach, this stock is just getting ready to go.

Diageo (NYSE: DEO) rose 16.1% since 03/26. If everyone keeps worrying about the market like this, I predict a little extra drinking happening, which is great for Diageo. In fact, if you guys make money, I’m sure the celebration will call for…well, for drinks.

New Stocks On The Block
The Derrich.com Stock Portfolio welcomes 2 new stocks to the party: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGAA (NYSE: FMS) and Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH). Fresenius is a German kidney dialysis company that provides dialysis treatment at its own dialysis clinics (also in the United States), as well as produces and supplies a range of machines and disposables. This company has quickly become a major player in this niche, and I also like it since it pays a dividend [yield = 1.00%]. As far as Coach…well, you could pick just about any high-end clothing and accessories retailer. I almost chose Guess (NYSE: GES), which is up 125.8% in the last 12-month period…and it pays a dividend [yield = 0.10%]…but I like Coach. Every woman I know talks about nothing but Coach purses and wallets. And that’s it. And they’re not just talking about them. They’re buying them. If Jessica Alba likes them, then why shouldn’t you…well, the stock anyway.

Related posts:

1. Stock Watch — 05/07/2007
2. Stock Watch — 08/01/2007
3. Stock Watch – 04/16/2007

Coincidentally, Blain Reinkensmeyer emailed me this weekend asking me to choose two stocks for his weekly stock picking contest. Blain’s blog, Stock Investing 101, is a contestant in the 2007 Bloggers Tournament and he’s the Top Commenter on Derrich.com. The purpose of the contest this week is to “try to beat out eMom though there really is no true purpose”. I’m game. eMom is fellow MyBlogLog-er, Wendy Piersall. She claims she’s “not much into the stock market“. But we’ll see about that. Ok. So I’m a little intimidated. What can I say?

Derrich.com Stock Portfolio
On the main page, I’ve included a new section in the sidebar called “Stock Watch”. Included in that list will be every stock I’ve mentioned on Derrich.com. I’ve decided I’d also begin keeping track of the portfolio as if I were purchasing each of the stocks. For Blain’s contest, I chose Braskem S.A. (NYSE: BAK) and Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO). I’ll go into more detail as to why in another post. I have not yet entered them into my chart, which I’ve included below. It reflects the stock price as of the market close on Monday, March 26.

View today’s trading activity on the Yahoo! Finance widget located on the main page.

Whether or not I actually own them, I will simulate buying and selling of the stocks in the Derrich.com portfolio as if I did own them in order to keep track of returns. Each stock will be bought and sold in 100-share increments. I will also limit the portfolio to 25 stocks at a time. Don’t forget, I’m not a stock broker, nor am I a financial advisor. Just a stock market aficionado. Follow at your own risk. Muahahahaha!!! *cough*cough*

Related posts:

1. Stock Watch — 04/06/2007
2. Stock Watch – 04/16/2007
3. Stock Picking Contest @ Stock Trading 101